Hurricane Florence

by Grania

If this is likely to be in your path, please do everything you can to get to safety. It’s estimated it could make U.S. landfall late Thursday or early Friday, but might in the Carolinas as early as Wednesday night.

20 Comments

  1. Michael Fisher
    Posted September 10, 2018 at 2:35 pm | Permalink

    This chart is what “category X hurricane” means:

    Category Four Hurricane:

    Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt or 210-249 km/hr). Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtain wall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas. The most notorious category 4 in Belize’s history was Hattie (Oct 1961). More recently Iris (Oct 2001) devastated Placencia, Monkey River and nearby localities in the south.

    SOURCE

  2. W.Benson
    Posted September 10, 2018 at 3:01 pm | Permalink

    People in and inland from the impact area,say as far away as Ohio, and southern Indiana and Illinois, should read the following. Rain, like fell in Houston with Harvey, will be a big problem.
    https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Hurricane-Florence-Rapidly-Intensifying-Likely-Hit-North-or-South-Carolina-Thursday?cm_ven=hp-slot-2

    • Torbjörn Larsson
      Posted September 10, 2018 at 4:43 pm | Permalink

      Rain inducing flooding far away from the impact area, it seems. (Ref in my longer comment.)

  3. sgo
    Posted September 10, 2018 at 3:21 pm | Permalink

    The Capital Weather Gang, who report the weather for the DC area at the Washington Post, has really good coverage of Florence (not just focused on the DC metro area), including uncertainties and plenty of updates: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/

  4. scruffycookie
    Posted September 10, 2018 at 4:39 pm | Permalink

    I’m in central Virginia and our governor is on TV at the moment and has declared a state of emergency. He’s ordering evacuation of Hampton Roads and other coastal areas like the Eastern Shore. My sister is in Hampton. :-/

  5. Torbjörn Larsson
    Posted September 10, 2018 at 4:41 pm | Permalink

    “Rarely is the outbreak so furious as the current explosion of three hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean with the possibility of a fourth tropical storm developing in the Gulf of Mexico this week. Of most immediate concern is Hurricane Florence, which has rapidly strengthened overnight and now presents a rare and substantial threat to the Carolinas and beyond due to high winds, storm surge, and, for much of the US East Coast, the potential for extremely heavy rainfall.

    In the Atlantic hurricane record, which goes back about 150 years and has limited reliability before 1950, there have been just 11 years (including this one) in which there have been three hurricanes active in the Atlantic basin, which includes the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. Just twice, in 1893 and 1998, have four hurricanes been active at once, according to Colorado State University hurricane scientist Phil Klotzbach.”

    “This is a rare hurricane for the Carolinas. As University of Miami scientist Brian McNoldy noted on Twitter, never has a recorded Category 4 hurricane made landfall in the United States north of the border between South and North Carolina. (The closest storm to do so was Hazel, back in 1954). Even more unusual is Florence’s track. No hurricane in recorded history has ever made a US landfall from Florence’s position of two days ago; those storms tend to follow a northerly track as they get swept up by the mid-latitudes.

    As potentially damaging as Florence’s wind and surge are for coastal areas of the Carolinas, however, its inland rainfall should prove equally destructive, if not worse. That is because, somewhat like Hurricane Harvey in 2017, steering currents seem likely to weaken once Florence moves inland and runs into high pressure over West Virginia and Kentucky.

    This could lead to extremely heavy rainfall for parts of the eastern United States, which will induce significant and widespread flooding. The effects of this flooding could be far removed from wherever Florence makes landfall.

    [ https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/09/hurricane-florence-represents-a-grave-threat-to-the-east-coast/ ]

    TL;DR: Run, far!

    • Hemidactylus
      Posted September 10, 2018 at 7:42 pm | Permalink

      There was hope for a less active season due to Saharan dust, lowered sea surface temps in the main development region and potential for el nino to kick in at some point. Doesn’t seem to be the case at this point, but hopefully this is just a freak upswing before a dramatic slowdown.

      After coming home post Irma about a month later freak storm trains flooded my neighborhood for weeks last year. So long after a tropical system regular summer-fall thunderstorm activity can add insult to injury.

    • Hempenstein
      Posted September 11, 2018 at 1:00 pm | Permalink

      Only 4y/o then but I remember the dark skies and torrential rain in Northern Virginia from Hazel.

  6. Hemidactylus
    Posted September 10, 2018 at 6:08 pm | Permalink

    I’m still shell shocked after Matthew in ‘16 and Irma in ‘17. I was fortunate enough to have a home remaining after those two very intense storms. Evacuated for Matthew to the opposite side of Florida at a friend’s house. Luckily it stayed mostly offshore. 30-40 miles west in trajectory would have pancaked my area off the map. I fretted the several hour drive home. But I did evacuate. Don’t take these things lightly. The coastal Carolinas may have major surging issues not to mention the wind. Surge is worse. Don’t stick around. Just evacuate if you can and hope for the best.

    Last year I worked a shelter during Irma, an experience in itself within the nightmare of the storm. That one scared me too. Being in the bad eastern side was scary though it had been up a good portion of the peninsula. The howl was intense and it fed some tornadoes through my area. Not cool. If flooding and intense hurricane winds aren’t bad enough then come the twisters.

    This storm Florence scares me even though it is supposed to miss my area altogether. Now I look at another area far from me and recall all too vividly the emotions I had during and after Matthew and Irma in two subsequent years and what the people in the Carolinas are going through now preparing for hell unleashed. The anxiety and panic are overwhelming, especially when you are triaging your possessions and wondering what you will come home to when it is over.

    I won’t dwell on the 2004 season with Charley, Frances, and Jeanne impacting my area. Or seeing the aftermath of Katrina in Miami when visiting friends.

    I am eyeing Isaac with concern and given Matthew happened in October the season is far from over though now in its typically most active period.

    Stay safe if you are in Florence’s path.

  7. Dave137
    Posted September 10, 2018 at 6:32 pm | Permalink

    Absurd how science-doubting Republicans listen now to scientists and accept the evidence of hurricanes, with at least one on the way, yet when it comes to climate-change it’s a Chinese hoax without evidence.

    • rickflick
      Posted September 11, 2018 at 2:07 am | Permalink

      Some of the GOP have an interesting position. They accept anthropomorphic global warming but think it’s too late to stop it so we should just build more sea walls and invest in air conditioners. It’s not surprising that this plan saves the fossil fuel industry from any loss.

  8. Heather Hastie
    Posted September 10, 2018 at 7:25 pm | Permalink

    You don’t have to go to safety. Pat Robertson has prayed the hurricane away from land, and he says he’s done this before (Hurricane Esther 1961), and so the people should know it works.

    Of course, he hasn’t mentioned all the other hurricanes since 1961 where either he didn’t bother to pray, or his prayers didn’t work.

    Or perhaps they only work when the Christian Broadcasting Network specifically is in danger?

    http://www.rightwingwatch.org/post/pat-robertson-establishes-a-shield-of-protection-against-hurricane-florence/

    • BJ
      Posted September 10, 2018 at 9:10 pm | Permalink

      He only prays them away when God tells him that they aren’t being sent to punish the gays.

      • Heather Hastie
        Posted September 11, 2018 at 9:16 pm | Permalink

        Ha! Good call!

    • Hempenstein
      Posted September 11, 2018 at 12:56 pm | Permalink

      Hope he goes down to the coast to welcome Flo and demonstrate the efficacy of his Shield.

      • Heather Hastie
        Posted September 11, 2018 at 9:56 pm | Permalink

        What a good idea! He could do a Canute!

        • Michael Fisher
          Posted September 11, 2018 at 10:48 pm | Permalink

          Oh Heather, Heather! You surely mean an anti-Canute?

          • Heather Hastie
            Posted September 12, 2018 at 6:24 pm | Permalink

            You know what I mean! 😀

  9. Posted September 10, 2018 at 9:02 pm | Permalink

    Living in the southeast, I’m weary of storms. A thousand year flood in 2015 with Joaquin offshore, another thousand year flood in 2016 with Matthew, and a brush with Irma last year… it’s tiring. It *appears that the storm is trending more north, which is good news for my location, but horrible news for those in the updated path.

  10. Andy
    Posted September 12, 2018 at 7:04 am | Permalink

    Huuh I am little scared about hurricane Florence. Ye, maybe more panicked than the situation is, but who knows how strong Florence will be on coast of Myrtle Beach? It can totally destroy the east coast of North and South Carolina. I will watch for sure webcam from myrtle beach boardwalk. Hope it will stay alive as long as possible. On friday we will know more.


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