It’s a referendum on progressivism versus hidebound conservatism in Alabama today, as Republican Roy Moore (yes, you know all about him) faces off against Democrat Doug Jones to fill Jeff Sessions’s Senate seat. Moore is, if that’s possible, worse than Trump (for one thing, he’s always spouting off about God and Jesus), but, you know, this is America. And Moore has been endorsed by Trump, which in Alabama may count in his favor.
Predict the election! (And comment below if you want.) Please vote, and, as usual, I’m not representing this as anything other than opinions of WEIT readers.
I’m afraid tribalism will trump character.
I think Moore got a late boost from Pelosi, and her comments on Icon Conyers, and Jimmy Kimmel. Kimmel couldn’t keep it to just Moore, he had to take shots at Alabama.
In 2016 I told friends that if the election became about a Trump voters rather than about Trump that he would win. And it did, and he did.
My prediction: Moore alas. Will the senate ethics committee investigate and turf him? I think not, but I hope so.
I picked Moore, though I wish to FSM it won’t be true.
I won’t make many fans here, but if he is elected I don’t think the Senate should eject him unless the charges against him can be proved. As hideous as he is, if the people of Alabama elect him that should be honored. There is a fundamental principle at stake here and if it is undermined by mere accusation, as a democracy we are lost.
One advantage of that outcome is that while he’s there he will be a constant reminder that one party is morally superior to the other. I’d bet he makes himself the center of a lot of attention, relieving the Dems of the duty to point him out on a frequent basis. Anyone for a silver lining?
I wouldn’t say one party is morally superior but I would say one party completely lacks morals and ethics.
And what does being morally superior get you? Well besides losing around a 1,000 elected officials over the last decade, losing the SC because you could not even get a hearing for a nominee, and control of no arm of the national government and what like 6 state houses and governorships.
It’s the difference between allegation and conviction. Most countries consider that an important point.
That’s making the case, essentially, that the Senate should have no ability to govern itself beyond the judgements of a court. As an independent branch of government it has the right to not seat a senator if it so chooses. This is written into the Constitution.
Well yes, it’s in there but do you really think a mere accusation should be used to undermine the will of the people even if it is legally permissible?
Excuse me while I throw this rope over the branch of that tree. Or in Italian, “over that garage frontage”.
If Moore is elected, an accusation shouldn’t undermine the will of the people. Multiple accusations which all show a disturbing pattern should without a doubt be investigated. If he is seated without an investigation, you don’t think the rest of America’s Senators won’t be bombarded with an overwhelming outrage? Even a failing democracy like ours surely won’t allow a racist, misogynistic, theocratic, pedophile to sit in the Senate. Salary/healthcare for life and everything else that comes with being a Senator is handed to a scumbag like Moore? If it happens, and the Republicans do nothing, there will be serious repuercutions.
“Even a failing democracy like ours surely won’t allow a racist, misogynistic, theocratic, pedophile to sit in the Senate. ”
Mark – they are already there. Except the pedophile, which is a crime, unlike the others. They have always been there.
This dude is a new type of there though. Unhinged Theocrats (God’s law above the Constitution types) are still a small minority, and as you noted, no pedophiles.
It is up to the Senate to determine whether there is more than a “mere” accusation. They may do that however they like. Trials are not required.
You didn’t answer the question.
I didn’t see it as a sensible question.
When did you stop beating your wife?
“I didn’t see it as a sensible question.”
How rude.
Srsly, dude?
Your question hinges on the word “mere”. It is the kind of question designed to offer no other answer but “of course not”. But it hides behind that little word. Everything hinges on “mere” which is entirely subjective.
It wasn’t a question that deserved a serious response.
Apologies if sensitivities were abraded.
Yes seriously. If you can’t discuss something without recourse to insult, I’m not having it. You could have answered in good faith but chose not to.
I didn’t see a good faith question.
Out of curiosity, where were you insulted?
So first it wasn’t a “sensible “ question. Then it wasn’t a “good faith” question.
Next up, “it wasn’t even a grammatical question”
Mikeyc asked a cogent question. Should senators from other states overturn elections when they have never even bothered to investigate, have confronted the accused with a specific complaint, and have not heard his response?
And yet you get it wrong. That clause is about expulsion, yet you are talking about not seating him. He cannot be expelled until he is a member.
It is unclear what you are referring to, Craw.
Is the difference beetween seating and immediately expelling and not seating somehow significant?
What is there to prove? He has proven time and again he puts his fundamentalist interpretation of the Bible above the US constitution. Untenable for a US senator.
Pretty much unavoidable for a US politician though.
If Moore wins it will hasten the blasting apart of the Republican Party, especially if Mitch McConnell and the other establishment senators follow through on their pledge to conduct a full-fledged ethics investigation of Moore and try to purge him from the senate.
Even if Jones wins, I still expect to see the GOP rupture, perhaps irretrievably, probably sometime within the next next, as the special counsel’s noose tightens around Donald Trump’s neck. The Republicans have been inviting some unsavory characters into their fold for a long time now, culminating in last year’s hostile takeover of the Party by the Trump-Bannonite wing (essentially the same sort of bigoted know-nothings that William F. Buckley, Jr., and responsible conservatism purged from its ranks in the early 1960s).
There is little binding these dead-enders to the traditional Republican party factions (and, for that matter, little any longer binding those factions to each other) save for their unremitting loathing of the Left. As the descent of Donald Trump continues, watch for the long-knives to be unsheathed in a bloody orgy of enmity and recrimination.
I’ve been predicting the demise/rupture of the Republican Party for many years. So far I have not been proven prescient. I would surely love to be proven prophetic.
I agree. That is why I hope the ethics committee can investigate, and we can get a decent answer.
The yearbook story is in trouble tbh, but there are some factual claims there. She says he was a regular, he denies being there. That sounds like we have testable claims.
Agree with the sentiments above – Moore will win just as Trump won amidst lots of claims, both alleged and proven, of moral wrongdoing. I sure hope he doesn’t win, but I’d honestly be surprised if he didnt.
This sort of reminds me of what happened with the 2016 Pres. election. One qualified opponent, one grossly under-qualified. The qualified opponent barely gets any press and is drowned out by the opposing candidate’s outrageous antics. The media is saturating Moore’s campaign, but Doug Jones who? No talk of issues and Moore refused debates. So again, an election that is only about emotions, not about the issues that affect the people of Alabama. Plus the AL secretary of state made voting for African Americans extremely difficult. If Moore loses, it will be due to minorities, women and young voters who actually get out and vote (those who aren’t suppressed that is). As is always the case nowadays, Republicans can only win by cheating.
I voted moving to Canada, because my real answer is “I don’t know” and the Canada option made me laugh.
Don’t move to Canada: move to Alabama. And then in time, vote.
I’ve already lived in the reddest state in the union (Wyoming) for 9 years. That was 9 years too long. That was during the Bush years; I can’t imagine what Wyoming is like under Trump. Oh the sacrifices we endure to make a living.
Wyoming?
Forget it, Jake; it’s Cheneytown.
Oh boy, Cheney is Shane. Wyoming? The most insane of places. Start at 6,000 ft. above. Wind? no body knows wind unless up there.
Moore: Because people are stupid
Assuming “No Opinion” means “I don’t know”, I picked that. I think the fourth option should have been offered as a separate check box.
I can’t see how any set of voters could elect someone as awful as Roy Moore, but this is Alabama.
I voted ‘no opinion’. Viewing the matter from the other side of the pond the madness of Alabama is beyond my ken. My hope is the Republican bible bashing misogynist loses heavily.
Moore should be disqualified for his verifiable failure to protect the Constitution, in part by proclaiming that all law falls under “God’s Law”: a sentiment the Taliban would agree with.
Of course, that’s also the primary reason why Alabamians blindly like him.
Here’s the attitude of Alabama’s Sec. of State (Moore supporter) when it comes to citizens of Alabama voting.
From Mother Jones:
“If you’re too sorry or lazy to get up off of your rear and to go register to vote, or to register electronically, and then to go vote, then you don’t deserve that privilege,” Republican John Merrill said in an interview with documentary filmmaker Brian Jenkins. Jenkins had asked why he opposed automatically registering Alabamians when they reach voting age, and his response sizzled with anger toward people who “think they deserve the right because they’ve turned 18.” So he made a pledge: “As long as I’m secretary of state of Alabama, you’re going to have to show some initiative to become a registered voter in this state.”
As a state, Alabama ranks…
#47 in Healthcare
#47 in Education
#45 in Economy
#42 in Crime/Corrections
#42 in Government
#50 in Infant Mortality
#49 in Obesity
Make
Alabama
Great
For Once In It’s Existence
#1 in Crimson Tide fans.
Most people I’ve met from Alabama are proud of their ignorance, it’s a badge of honor.
Guns, God and the Tide, that’s all that matters.
State motto: “At least we’re not Mississippi.”
Yes, but they believe in Jesus! (See what the “power” of prayer does for you?)
from hearing some of the pro Moore Alabamians answers to interviewers, I fear moore has it. They are very big anti choicers there – and of course hellishly religious.
Dear Ceiling Cat, make me wrong!!!
Agreed – we keep hearing that he is a good Christian man with strong Christian values. Seems to me that makes a pretty good case against their brand of Christianity.
The polls show a close race, but I bet enough voters are embarrassed to admit to a pollster that they favor someone who molested 14-year olds that the race will be decidedly in Moore’s favor.
It will be another “bottom of the barrel” ranking for Alabama to crow about.
It’s interesting that at this point this poll is about 2/1 in favor of Moore over Jones (well not “in favor” but predicting a Moore win!) That’s about the way that Nate Silver stacked the odds a couple of days ago, and also the 2/3 odds that he gave Hillary of winning last year (published before the polls opened). A one in three chance coming up is not impossible – although I’m not holding my breath.
The question of whether electing Moore would be a Pyrrhic victory is, of course, open
Please don’t move here to Canada. You’ve made enough of a mess of your own country.
Well, isn’t that nice? We’re all to blame.
Yes
I voted for move to Canada but that is too easy. I am already a Canadian living here.
Someone who has known Moore for many years claims he’s likely a complete fraud.
For example, he claimed to draw no salary from the non-profit “Foundation for Moral Law” that he founded in 2002. Wikipedia reports that “In October 2017, however, The Washington Post reported that Moore had arranged an annual salary of $180,000 for himself from the foundation.[20] From 2007 to 2012, he collected more than $1 million, a number that far surpasses what the nonprofit declared in its public tax filings, because of what the Post called “errors and gaps in the group’s federal tax filings”.[20] Furthermore, The Washington Post reported that Moore arranged the salary and that, in 2012 when the charity could not pay his full salary, Moore received a note promising that he would get the salary in back pay or a stake in the assets of the foundation.”
The man is simply a scoundrel, and religious scoundrels are the worst kind.
Samuel Johnson said that “Patriotism is the last refuge of a scoundrel”, but in America religiosity is tied with patriotism for first place.
I voted for Jones and believe he will win. They must get a big turn out from the African American community but it can be done. If he should win I will take back some of the things I have said about Alabama.
Oh! You’re Alabamanian (Alablamian? Alabamon? Alabmaninium?).
What’s the word on the ground there? What do your fellow Alabaminins think of the attention – like from the world (srsly, the BBC has it on the front page)? I saw Charles Barkeley’s tweet the other day; “We’ve got to stop looking like idiots”. That a familiar tone down there or is Charles pissing in the wind?
LOL, like someone from Alabama would read BBC news. Commie socialists is what they are.
I assumed Randall meant he voted Jones in PCC’s poll.
No No. I voted in the poll here on line. Not from Alabama, please. Have some respect. I am a Yankee from Iowa, currently in Kansas. Alambanians must decide if they want to move forward into the 20th century or go back to the Alabama of George Wallace.
Oh. My bad. How embarrassing.
I take some sardonic pleasure in the fact that this a lose-lose contest for the Republicans. Either way, they keep their thin majority in the Senate, but if Moore wins, the Democrats’ commercials write themselves for next year’s midterms.
Wishful thinking. He’going to win. That’s a loss for any thinking soul. Dems commercials are of no importance or consequence. It is a win-lose situation: win for the GOP, lose for the donkeys.
It’s more than that; it’s a referendum on basic human decency, and whether one side still has any. If Alabamy goes for Moore, they might as well barricade the state border and break out their old George Wallace bumper stickers, white sheets, and Confederate regalia.
I predict Moore by an enormous margin. Extra points for his wife’s “Some of my best friends are Jews” comments.
They got a Jew lawyer. So, obvs, they can’t be anti-Semitic.
Honest to Christ, that’s the way these people think.
Irony died again.
One of their lawyers is a Jew. Just one but they also know a couple of Rabbi. If he is not guilty of anything why all the attorneys.
2018 will deliver. Jones
From the purely political viewpoint of the Republican establishment in Congress, this election is a disaster, regardless of what happens. There are three possibilities.
1) Doug Jones wins thus reducing the Republican majority in the Senate from 52-48 to 51-49.
2) Moore wins and is seated. He continues to be a national embarrassment to the Republican Party and is a thorn in the side of the likes of the Senate Majority Leader, Mitch McConnell. Marginally, at least, this result will help Democrats in 2018.
3) Moore wins and is expelled from the Senate. The Republican governor of Alabama selects a replacement, leading to another special election. The Trump-Bannon wing goes nuts and the rift in the Republican Party becomes irreparable, leading to big Democratic wins in 2018.
My money is on possibility number 2. Senate Republicans will try as much as possible to keep Moore out of the public spotlight. But, Moore will not keep his mouth shut and McConnell will continually be uttering platitudes such as “Moore doesn’t represent the majority of the Republican Party.” Since the Republicans are too cowardly to criticize Trump, they wouldn’t want to rile up Trump-Bannon. Most of them will simply say nothing.
I can’t remember which acronym applies to which party, but it’s either Paedophiles’R’us, or GOPaedophiles that are going to “win”.
Allegedly. Consistently, and from multiple sources.
Read this at Always Question Authority:
“Alabama would vote for a Dixie cup full of chicken shit, if you draped an American flag around it and scribbled John 3:16 on it in crayon.”
(of course not ALL Alabamians)
As a non-USian, so my opinion is pretty irrelevant, I’d guess Moore wins by an amount which makes it very likely that (mostly black) voter suppression, illegal federally if judges hadn’t cancelled that requirement in 2013, is easily arguable to be the factor which produced that result. An amount of 15,000 to 20,000 would suffice IIRC.
Oh, I can’t wait to hear Mike Malloy tonight on his podcast with regard to this election, especially if Moore wins. He always has such a colourful way of putting things. He has a lot of disdain for Alabama, so this election won’t help his attitude.
I couldn’t vote for “move to Canada” because I already live here, THANK GOD. Err, THANK CEILING CAT!
It’s unnerving to watch what is happening
south of the border. Every day is a WTF moment on the news.
Not everybody in Alabama is a conservative, religious nut-ball, but so many are that it’s hard to see the liberals through the crowd. I voted for Jones this morning (yes, here in Alabama), and I hope that he wins. But since I live in the real world, I’m prepared for the worst. Most of these people voted for Trump, you know.
I hope I didn’t insult you with my comment above. Of course, there are wonderful people in Alabama, I have no doubt, including you. But on last night’s CBC ‘The National’ newscast, they only interviewed Moore/Trump supporters, and it was really hard to watch. They sounded like morons. “We all have the same x’n values as Moore, so of course we’re gonna vote for him.” God help us.
It must feel almost like admitting to a crime. Yes…I live in Alabama but I’m working on it.
We know not everybody in Alabama is a conservative nutball, after all Condoleezza is from Alabama: conservative yes, nutball no
Mr Moore is going to win. Very sad, but not as sad as mr Trump usurping the presidency.
I expect Moore to win, but I’m rooting for all the moderate, suburban Republican women to prove me wrong. It’ll take them, and a record turn out by the black electorate, to put Jones over the top.
“….a record turn out by the black electorate”. There’s the rub. It’s what sunk Clinton.
If Jones wins in the deep South, this would be firm evidence of the miraculous!
I don’t believe it. Just now Jones went 1% ahead of Moore with 91% of the votes counted.
CNN now projecting victory for Jones. Wow! The black vote did it. Thank you Alabama!
I’ll bet they’ve taken the advice of this cat, who says “No Moore.”
Holy Cr@p!!! Jones is reported as the winner.
There is a God! (Not)
Just read that, too. I am very surprised.
Yea, I figured Moore would win. Wow. Ethics seems to still matter. Perhaps all is not lost yet.
I’m surprised too. There is still some decency out there trumping (pardon the expression) partisan loyalty. This is the first time in a while that my fellow Americans exceeded my expectations. I hope it’s the start of a new trend.
*****
First place I go to when I hear: Jones is the projected winner. Close electio. Glad my vote above is wrong!!!
Trump & Bannon must be pissed tonight. Yay!
I was definitely expecting a Moore win, and not a close one.
When I learned that Jones won, I was my first feeling was disappointment. I think Moore is the candidate that the GOP deserves, and they dodged a bullet to not have Moore in the Senate to embarrass them for decade or two.
See what happens when you’re allowed to campaign in every mall in Alabama?
Expected Mr Moore to win. One more loss and the Senate is tied.
Gluon, if Mr Trump fails to deeply embarrass the GOP, what makes you think Mr Moore could do more?
That’s a fair point. And maybe it would have no effect at all.
OTOH, I think there is some tension inside the GOP from Trump and Moore would up that tension. Also, the GOP has a shrinking base problem. Moore would not be a recruiting tool for the GOP.
Finally, I have observed a few (only a few!) of my conservative Christian friends struggling with Trump and struggling again with Moore. It’s fun for me to have the moral high ground on them even on their own terms, and the pain this causes is good, because at some threshold of pain it becomes less painful to change than to maintain the cognitive dissonance. It may not be obvious there is any effect until it breaks.
Jones won. However, a look at the vote count will show how reactionary Alabama is.
Jones won, but note the voter statistics.
Summary:
98% of the black women voted for Jones while 63% of the white women(!) voted for Moore.
94% of black men voted for Jones.
Overall Moore received 68% of the white vote while Jones only received 30% of the white vote.
So only about 1/3rd of the white voters in Alabama did the right thing, while 96% of the African American voters did the right thing. We should not be congratulating Alabama so much as the congratulating the 30% minority of white voters and the vast majority (94%) of black voters. I wonder do about that 6% of the black voters that voted for the racist, but am unsurprised about the majority of white voters who voted that way.
Remember that Alabama is rated so near, or even at, the bottom for so many things, including education – as BobTerrace at #10 pointed out.
http://www.newsweek.com/doug-jones-roy-moore-alabama-senate-race-special-election-results-demographics-746366
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/politics/alabama-exit-polls/?utm_term=.c11a9b3adf13